Shock forecasts for 2017 from Saxo Bank

9 December 2016

Will this year be one of growth in China, of a Bremain, or of recovery for the Mexican peso and Italian banks outperforming on their shares?

Saxo Bank, the on-line investment and trading specialist, is publishing its Shock forecasts for 2017. 


This set of forecasts continues the Saxo Bank tradition of provoking debate on some potentially surprising or shocking events for investors in the coming year. So these forecasts aren’t official results from Saxo Bank’s research and strategy teams for 2017. They aim instead to set the scene for absurd market events and movements that could overturn the established, carefully considered consensus. 


Steen Jakobsen, Chief economist of Saxo Bank, comments: “The greatest challenge when writing this year’s Shock Forecasts was to absorb the surprise of Brexit and the election of Donald Trump to lead the United States. Reality overtook the most shocking forecasts”. 


“The general theme of this year’s shock forecasts could be: for desperate circumstances, desperate measures are needed. So with 2017 fast approaching, central banks could decide to abandon their accommodation policy and negative interest rates, without however forsaking all intervention and influence on the distribution of capital and the price of money.”  


“The final conclusion I would draw from my experience with Shock Forecasts is that the one you reject is the one most likely to happen. Let’s be honest, no-one could have foreseen the recovery of emerging markets led by Brazil last year”.